Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $677,833$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{664,617.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 123.7)}}\) (asimptote \(664,617.3\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $16,909$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(801 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,399.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 122.7)}}\) (asimptote \(17,399.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $49,880$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,205$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,390.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 166.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,390.7\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $62$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 152.2)}}\) (asimptote \(73.0\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $744$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $35,717$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(69 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,271.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 175.2)}}\) (asimptote \(54,271.8\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $570$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,098.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 182.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,098.8\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,813$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,417$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,319.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 68.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,319.3\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.75 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $128,565$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(910 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{672,815.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 251.2)}}\) (asimptote \(672,815.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,263$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(18.3 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,258$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,045$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(596 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,332.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 110.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,332.8\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(15.8 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 75.3)}}\) (asimptote \(86.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $103,466$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.55 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,944.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.0)}}\) (asimptote \(100,944.2\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,956$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(739 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,770.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 101.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,770.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $367$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,729$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,306.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 91.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,306.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $272$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{276.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 96.3)}}\) (asimptote \(276.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $274$ on 2020-10-02