Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Djibouti
  • Morocco
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Egypt
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Malawi
  • Senegal
  • Rwanda

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $677,833$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{664,617.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 123.7)}}\) (asimptote \(664,617.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $16,909$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(801 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,399.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 122.7)}}\) (asimptote \(17,399.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $49,880$ on 2020-10-02

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,205$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,390.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 166.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,390.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $62$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 152.2)}}\) (asimptote \(73.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $744$ on 2020-10-02

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $35,717$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(69 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,271.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 175.2)}}\) (asimptote \(54,271.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $570$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,098.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 182.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,098.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,813$ on 2020-10-02

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,417$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,319.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 68.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,319.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.75 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-10-02

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $128,565$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(910 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{672,815.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 251.2)}}\) (asimptote \(672,815.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,263$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(18.3 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,258$ on 2020-10-02

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,045$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(596 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,332.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 110.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,332.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(15.8 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 75.3)}}\) (asimptote \(86.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-02

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,466$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.55 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,944.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.0)}}\) (asimptote \(100,944.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,956$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(739 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,770.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 101.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,770.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $367$ on 2020-10-02

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,729$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,306.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 91.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,306.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $272$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{276.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 96.3)}}\) (asimptote \(276.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $274$ on 2020-10-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Egypt recovered 99%
Malawi recovered 54%
Senegal recovered 54%
Rwanda recovered 24%

Malawi⮸

Population $19,129,952$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,783$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(641 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,834.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 88.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,834.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $179$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(11.8 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 106.5)}}\) (asimptote \(179.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,069$ on 2020-10-02

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,051$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.69 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,997.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.0)}}\) (asimptote \(15,997.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $312$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.49 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{322.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 104.6)}}\) (asimptote \(322.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,045$ on 2020-10-02

Rwanda⮸

Population $12,952,218$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,847$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.72 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,818.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 160.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,818.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 111.7)}}\) (asimptote \(51.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,621$ on 2020-10-02